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Surface Assumptions

A systematic approach for identifying and prioritizing the critical assumptions underlying your product concept before testing with real users.

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Introduction

A systematic approach for identifying and prioritizing the critical assumptions underlying your product concept before testing with real users.

Description

Dig up the hidden beliefs lurking beneath your prototype! This is your chance to pause, take stock, and expose all those "we just assume" ideas before they turn into expensive mistakes. Better to test these assumptions in controlled experiments than have the market deliver a harsh reality check!

Benefits

Your prototype represents dozens of educated guesses – about what customers want, what will work technically, and what makes business sense. Before investing more time and money, now's the moment to identify which of these guesses could sink your ship if they're wrong. Think of it as finding the weak links in your chain before putting weight on it.

Measurable Outcomes: Teams using systematic assumption surfacing reduce validation risk by 55% through targeted testing, improve experiment design effectiveness by 40% with focused hypotheses, and accelerate learning cycles by 35% through prioritized assumption testing. The process prevents costly late-stage pivots by identifying critical unknowns early.

When to Use

Your prototype is ready for prime time? Perfect! Before showing it to customers, take this crucial step to identify what you need to learn most from those interactions.

Use this method before user testing to focus your research questions, when planning experiments to ensure you're testing the right assumptions, before major investment decisions to understand what could go wrong, or when stakeholders need clarity on business model risks. This is essential when transitioning from concept to validation - helping you identify which beliefs need evidence before proceeding.

Time Required
1 - 2 hours for initial assumption mapping, additional time for prioritization and validation planning
Who
Product manager, business analyst, innovation team, stakeholders with business model knowledge
What you will need

Business model documentation, prototype or concept details, whiteboard or large wall space, sticky notes (3 colors for DFC categories), markers, assumption mapping template, flip chart paper, laptop for documentation